Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Surging middle classes eclipsing global poverty

Touting tigers, the Taj Mahal, and the towering Himalayas, India opened the 21st century with its "Incredible India" campaign to attract tourists from around the world. But the unexpected happened. A surprising new face showed up on the Indian tourism scene to fill hotel rooms and tour bus seats: Indians themselves.

They were people like Ash Narian Roy, who grew up in a rural hut but today has a PhD and works in Delhi. They are the new Indian middle class, who have begun exploring new horizons of education, culture, and leisure.

"Ten years ago," muses Dr. Roy, whose increasing ability to travel parallels the past decade's explosive growth of the middle class, "we may have gone near Shimla in our own car." But now he hires a driver to take his family into the heart of that cool summer resort in the Himalayas. And he even jets off to the beaches of Goa in the south.

The curious and free-spending domestic traveler like Roy, says Amitabh Kant, an Indian development official who wrote the book "Branding India: An Incredible Story," is an "economic savior" for India. And, to boot, Mr. Kant says, middle-class Indians are a powerful market abroad, now outspending Americans in London, for example, by 10 percent.

The "Incredible India" surprise is part of a surge of prosperity that is rapidly expanding the world's middle classes. By 2030, the global middle class is widely projected to at least double in size to as many as 5 billion – a surge unseen since the Industrial Revolution. This boom, however, is more global, more rapid, and is likely to have a far different – and perhaps far greater – impact in terms of global power, economics, and environment, say economists and sociologists.

"This dwarfs even the 19th-century middle class explosion in its global scale," noted economists Dominic Wilson and Raluca Dragusanu in a 2009 Goldman Sachs report. And they predicted, "the pace of expansion ... is likely to pick up."

The world will, for the first time in history, move from being mostly poor to mostly middle-class by 2022, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projects. Asians, by some predictions, could constitute as much as two-thirds of the global middle class, shifting the balance of economic power from West to East. Already, some analyses of International Monetary Fund data suggest that the size of the Chinese economy could eclipse that of the United States in just five years.

In just one example of the rising clout of this new global middle class, in a mere seven years China has gone from buying 1 General Motors car for every 10 sold in the US to becoming the American automaker's biggest customer – not to mention becoming a big competitor at the gas pumps.

But today's middle-class boom is unlike the Industrial Revolution, in which rising prosperity became a catalyst for increased individual and political freedom. Those in the emerging global middle classes – from an Indian acquiring a flush toilet at home to a Brazilian who can now afford private school to a Chinese lawyer with a new car in the driveway – are likely to redefine their traditional roles, and in doing so, redefine the world itself.

"I would expect that as the global middle class gets transformed by the entrance of hundreds of millions of Indian, Brazilian, and Chinese families, the concept of what we see as the middle-class values may change," says Sonalde Desai, a sociologist with the National Council of Applied Economic Research in Delhi (NCAER). "Historically, sociologists have defined 'middle class' as those with salaries…. I think 'middle class' is very much a state of mind."

Who are they?

From Aristotle to Alexis de Tocqueville, Western thinkers have championed the middle class as essential for prosperous, enlightened societies. They held it up as the engine for economic growth, the guardian of social values, and an impelling and protecting force for democracy.

The new members of the middle class have been praised for their work ethic, like the shopkeepers, tradesmen, and professionals who spurred the Industrial Revolution.

But they also differ in fundamental ways. They come from communal societies that rein in the individualism prized in 1800s America. Their exposure to the pitfalls of the West's extravagant consumerism often makes them more frugal and environmentally conscious. And they are hesitant – for now, at least – to risk prosperity for political freedom.

"China's rapid growth has been a kind of anesthetic that keeps political discontent manageable," says Brink Lindsey, whose book "The Age of Abundance" links America's post-World War II prosperity and its mind-opening educational opportunities to the social and political upheaval of the 1960s and '70s. "But already [in China] things are dramatically different. People have much more freedom in their lives."

That's a sneak preview, he says, of what lies ahead for developing countries – particularly the awakening giants of the middle class: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the so-called BRICS economies.

Mall-ified consumers

Far from Rio de Janeiro's beaches and boutiques, Shopping Jardim Guadalupe is emblematic of the global economic boom fueled by Brazil, India, and China. "I want your store in my mall," reads a recent ad for the megacomplex due to open in November. It will be a hub of middle-class aspiration with not just a food court, eight anchor stores, six "megastores," and 250 smaller shops, but also a university, private high school, gym, medical center, movie theaters, and a bowling alley. More than 84 percent of the property has been sold.

Millions have long lived in Rio's poor suburbs, but only recently have they had enough money to attract a mall developer. From 2003 to 2008, 24 million people left poverty in Brazil, where the middle class now accounts for more than half of its roughly 191 million citizens. At home, they enjoy color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, and vacuum cleaners. Half have a computer; more than a third have Internet access.

Estimates of just how big China's middle class is range widely from a low of 157 million (which would be second only to the US) to more than 800 million. With such a large middle class driving consumption, China has seen an average 15 percent growth in retail sales in recent years and is already the world's largest market for cellphones and cars (in 2009 passenger car sales increased 53 percent). India's middle class is projected by the NCAER to grow by 67 percent in the next five years, to 267 million people, or nearly a quarter of its population.

What's driving this bulge? State policies such as Brazil's increased minimum wage and India's reduced tax rates have boosted incomes. Foreign investment is giving more people salaried jobs, and those in turn are driving demand for everything from mechanics to more fashionable clothes, says economist Homi Kharas of the Brookings Institution in Washington. And more are getting better education.

That presents opportunities both for local entrepreneurs and multinationals – and could change the products available to the West.

Last year, Levi's specifically targeted Asians with its launch of dENiZEN, a new line for the "global citizen" complete with pink T-shirts that say "Chase Your Dream." In a reversal of the usual currents of global markets, dENiZEN will come to the US this summer, where Target will carry a line adapted for Americans.

There are other pioneers on this East-West route, particularly in consumer electronics, auto parts, and construction equipment, says Elizabeth Stephenson of the global consulting firm McKinsey & Company. In 2007, Finland's Nokia introduced seven low-cost cellphones in India; at least three of them are now marketed in the US. Last year, General Electric developed a low-cost electrocardiograph machine for rural India, and within weeks 500 units were en route to Germany.

"As companies have begun to sell into emerging markets, they've had to innovate – both multinationals and local companies. They've learned to do things at a much better value-to-price ratio," says Ms. Stephenson, coauthor of a 2010 McKinsey report on emerging-market growth. "Now, what you're starting to see is a lot of that innovation flow back. These new low-cost innovations are beginning to disrupt Western markets. The emerging market story is really a global story."

Comment:

What this actually means comrades is that Third World Countries are beginning to experience affluence, while the United States is turning into a true Third World Country. India, China, Brazil, and other such nations are growing richer, and we're growing poorer.

Who do we have to thank for this? Greedy Judeo-Capitalists and their government lackies, that's who, and it's called "outsourcing". American citizens are going straight down the toilet thanks to their unbridled greed. Here's a perfect example. I have a credit card where I owe about $150. I can't pay it off all at once because I need the cash for Laurens. Anyway, I called in a $50 payment by phone. I asked the customer service representative where she was located. It was the Philippines. Filipinos get these jobs, and Americans get to pay the bills. Gee, that sounds real fair, doesn't it?

What's the answer? You all know what it is. National Socialism through the ANP.

If we can achieve a National Socialist state, the first thing we must do is remove ourselves from the global economy. NO MORE IMPORTS, except maybe for curios, collectibles, things like that. For the most part, if we can't make it ourselves, then we don't need it.

Next thing is to shut down the Federal Reserve System. Technically, the Fed is an illegal corporation and should not exist at all.

Thirdly, we must close down Wall Street. Incorporating your business privately for organisational and tax purposes is one thing, but public corporations and open stock trading is nothing but gross capitalism, and it must end. Free enterprise: YES! Capitalism: NO!

Working hard, starting a business and making a go of it is free enterprise. That's what built this country and made it strong. Stock trading, wheeling and dealing, and making money without working for it is capitalism and it is destroying this country.

National Socialism has worked before. It took a massive force of arms to stop it. In just a few years, National Socialism brought Germany back from the edge of the abyss, and made it the strongest nation on Earth. Only through an alliance of several nations was it able to be destroyed.

Comrades, the parallels between the United States today, and the Wiemar Republic of Pre-Nazi Germany are nearly identical. Back then there was a terrible shortage of jobs. The mark was constantly being devalued. Corrupt leaders. Germany was being invaded by immigrants from Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania (Gypsies), Jews, and other Eastern European Countries.

We're facing the same things today. Shortages of jobs. Devaluation of the dollar. Corrupt leaders. Invasions from Third World Countries such as Mexico, the Middle East, Africa. The only difference between now and the Wiemar Republic is the country of origin of the invading immigrants.

The time has never been better for the return of National Socialism. But it won't happen unless we're all willing to do our part. That means making sacrifices and putting out an effort. If you're not already an Official Supporter, then become one today. If you're a Lone Wolf, what can you possibly accomplish alone? If you're already a Supporter, but you don't do anything except send in your pledges, then get more active. Start giving out literature. May Blitz is still going on. I've given out 400 pieces of literature this month alone, and I'm not finished yet. My personal goal is 500 in all for the Blitz. 100 to go. How about you? Talk to people. Start recruiting. Make plans to attend at least one conference a year. And anything else you can think of that I haven't mentioned.

Finally, all you good people who are still with bad organisations need to get away from career criminals like Jeff Schoep and the NSM and Mo Gullet of Aryan Nations. Join a real National Socialist Party. Become an Official ANP Supporter today! If you're a true National Socialist, we need you. If you just like "playing" Nazi, or you just want to "stomp some Niggers", then stay where you are. HAIL VICTORY!

Dan 88!


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